Exploring population structure and mortality patterns in England using life-tables and demographic data.
This note documents my exploration of population structure and mortality patterns in England using life-tables and demographic data. This aims to document my learning and understanding of population dynamics, mortality trends, and life tables for estimating mortality in England. This ultimately links to my work on the relationship between the indoor environment and health, as understanding population structure and mortality patterns is crucial for assessing the impact of indoor environmental factors on public health outcomes. By analyzing life tables and demographic data, I can gain insights into how different age groups are affected by various health outcomes, and how this may relate to indoor environmental conditions. This exploration also helps me understand the broader context of population health and mortality trends in England.
I begin by downloading the latest population data for England from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) nomisweb service (Official Census and Labour Market Statistics). This dataset provides population estimates by single year of age and sex. This dataset, however does not include single year of age data for ages 90 and above, so I use the ONS estimates of the very old, including centenarians, UK: 2002 to 2024 dataset to fill in the population counts for ages 90 and above. However, the very old dataset provides combined population estimates for the whole of the UK, whereas I am only interested in England. To estimate single-year-of-age counts for ages 90 and above in England, I first calculate the age distribution of the UK population aged 90+, expressing each single year of age as a proportion of the total 90+ population. I then apply these proportions to England’s total 90+ population to obtain the estimated counts by single year of age
The following two charts show the population distribution by age and sex in England as of 2024, based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The charts reveal a larger population in the younger age groups and a tapering off in the older age groups. Notably, there is a bulge in the population around the ages of 50-70, which I think might reflect the baby boomer generation.
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Next, I calculated the population-weighted mean age and total population for each 5-year age band, by sex. The reason for this will become clear in the next section.
I downloaded the latest mortality data for England from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) nomisweb service (Official Census and Labour Market Statistics). I downloaded a detailed dataset for mortality, with mortality counts for each ICD-10 three character code (e.g. J45 for asthma).
The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) is a standardized system for classifying diseases and health conditions. The system comprises a hierarchical structure of alphanumeric codes that represent specific diseases, symptoms, and other health-related issues. This website provides the full list of ICD-10 codes, which are organized into chapters based on the type of disease or condition.
I am not interested in all causes of death, but rather in specific causes of death that are relevant to my research on the indoor environment and health. I need to do more research here, as I am not an epidemiologist. But from the work of others, I have identified the following causes of death that are relevant to my research:
Note: CVR to do more research here and identify other relevant causes of death that may be relevant to the indoor environment and health.
The mortality dataset is stratified by sex and age group, starting with those aged under 1 year, then 1-4 years, then 5-year age bands up to 90+. To estimate mortality rates by single year of age and merge with the population dataset, I needed to fit a model to the data. To do this, I first needed to merge the population midpoints with the mortality data, collapsing the 90-94, 95-99, and 100+ age groups into a single 90+ age group. I then converted the death counts to rates per 100,000 population.
The following chart shows the mortality rates by age and sex for all causes of death, as well as for lung cancer and circulatory diseases. The chart reveals that mortality rates increase with age, with a sharper increase in the older age groups. Additionally
Note: the chart is interactive, so you can toggle the visibility of different causes of death to enable comparisons between diseases and sex with age.
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"plugins": {
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"text": "Log Mortality Rates - England (2024)",
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}
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